Hello to all….
….After Two Rounds of Isolated to Scattered Severe Thunderstorms (one
round Thursday Afternoon and a second round from 1:30-6:30 AM Friday
Morning), a more widespread severe weather event is possible today across
Southern New England with Damaging Winds and Large Hail the Primary
Threats….
….SPC has placed Practically All of Southern New England and Central and
Eastern New Hampshire in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather with Damaging
Winds and Large Hail the primary threats….
…..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is expected today. Spotters
and Coordinators should be prepared for activation again later today
possibly beginning as early as late morning but more likely toward early-mid
afternoon….
NWS Taunton and the Storm Prediction Center are in agreement on a Severe Weather risk for much of Southern New England today with damaging winds and large hail the primary threats. Threat today is for a multicellular line of thunderstorms with the threat for isolated supercells. Convective boundaries from the thunderstorms that affected much of Southern New England overnight will enhance severe potential. Any cloud cover and convective debris from the previous line of thunderstorms that affected the area will dissipate rapidly. Sun and daytime heating will rapidly destabilize the atmosphere once again over Southern New England and as a cold front approaches, the ingredients will most likely be in place for another round of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail the primary threats.
The timeframe for this threat would appear to be anytime after 2 PM but it is noted that activity could start as early as late morning. SKYWARN Spotters and Coordinators should be prepared for activation today and a portion of the activation could occur during work hours so if possible spotters are asked to forward reports if possible today if the event occurs during work hours. The highest risk area is over Central and Eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Southern and Eastern New Hampshire and Eastern Connecticut but keep in mind that practically all of Southern New England is in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather today.
This will most likely be the only coordination message on this event. Pages will be sent throughout the day to update the threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous WX Outlook, and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook: [Please press “read more” button —>]
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Southeast Massachusetts ARES District Emergency Coordinator
SEMARA ARES Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://users.rcn.com/rmacedoFXUS61 KBOX 020807
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 2004
…A ROUND OF SMALL HAIL…GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN MORNING
TSTMS…THEN REGENERATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGER HAIL AND
STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE…
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)…
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
PRODUCING MANY REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL…GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN. THUS FAR ONLY ONE REPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER…NICKEL SIZE HAIL
IN HARTFORD COUNTY AT 225 AM. EXPECTING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
MOVING EAST AND EXIT EASTERN MA 10-12Z.
CONVECTION WILL REFIRE BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY…AS SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS WELL WEST (NY STATE & PA) OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION…LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION WILL FURTHER
AID AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOP. ATMOSPHERE FURTHER DESTABILIZES TODAY
WITH ALL CONVECTIVE INDICES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MODERATE
INSTABILITY. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING COUPLED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER.
HIGHEST RISK WILL LIKELY BE EASTERN CT…RI…SOUTHEAST NH AND
EASTERN THIRD OF MA. FARTHER WEST…LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN VEERING
TO WEST BY MIDDAY…AS FRONT ENTERS CT RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
LIMIT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE…THUS LOWER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER CT
RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS OF 8500-9000 KFT…THREAT OF LARGE HAIL EXIST. WIND FIELD
NOT VERY STRONG…HOWEVER MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST STRONG
UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH COLLAPSING CELLS. WE WILL
ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) LATER THIS MORNING TO ADDRESS
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVE OFFSHORE. DRIER AND LESS HUMID
AIRMASS BEGINS TO ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)…
GIVEN ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY…DID NOT SPEND MUCH TIME WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
DATABASE MATCHES UP WELL WITH LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE…SO NO
CHANGES PLANNED.
&&
.MARINE…
IN THE SHORT TERM…ONLY CONCERN ARE WINDS APPROACHING 25 KT TODAY IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHEST WIND WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND NEAR
SHORE GIVEN STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND CORRESPONDING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. VSBY LOWERING THIS MORNING IN PATCHY FOG AND IN
TSTMS.
&&
.AVIATION…
LIFR CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTH COAST THIS MORNING. STRATUS WILL ERODE
LATER THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS WILL BURN OFF TOWARD MIDDAY AS WELL. MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON IN TSTMS…WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
MA…NONE.
NH…NONE.
RI…NONE.
MARINE…NONE.
$$
NOCERA/STRAUSS
FLUS41 KBOX 021010
HWOBOX
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
609 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 2004
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-030930-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
609 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 2004
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT…MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY…SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ALL OF RHODE ISLAND.
.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)…
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL…GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS BY 8 AM. A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON…TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY TURN SEVERE…WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE
ACROSS EASTERN CONNECTICUT…RHODE ISLAND…SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MOST OF MASSACHUSETTS…EXCLUDING THE BERKSHIRES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT…BRINGING AN END TO THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS…AS WELL AS USHERING IN A DRIER AND LESS
HUMID AIRMASS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)…
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS DEFINITELY REQUESTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THANKS SKYWARN!
THIS PRODUCT CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB SITE…WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/BOX
$$
NOCERA
SPC AC 020544
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT FRI JUL 02 2004
VALID 021200Z – 031200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND…
…NEW ENGLAND…
SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE PERIOD FORCING SFC FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS ALL BUT IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS…SWLY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ENSURING A RAPID WARM
UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CONVECTION SHOULD READILY DEVELOP BY 18-20Z IN RESPONSE TO
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WIND
SHIFT. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTS MULTICELL AND ISOLATED
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. TIMING OF
FRONTAL ZONE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
..DARROW.. 07/02/2004
…NOTICE…
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN…LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1…WUUS02 PTSDY2…AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z