Month: September 2004

***** ARES Tropical Storm Discussion #3 *****
*** Hurricane Frances Contingency Updated ***

Hello to all:

This note discusses the potential threat from Hurricane Frances for New England interests during the latter part of the Labor Day Holiday weekend.

The storm appears to be heading toward the Florida coast and affect us mid week as a windy rainstorm. I want to emphasize that it is still too early to say for sure where this hurricane will go, and our need to still carefully monitor it. Ironically a sudden turn to the North at this point would bring it to our area as a hurricane! Please continue to monitor storm’s progress through Rob’s status messages.

Only if the storm goes north of the 30th parallel and is west of Boston’s longitude (71W), on a northerly course, will I order the standby mobilization for our entire section. Cape Cod, South Shore (Plymouth), and Bristol DEC’s may elect to accelerate that schedule, so please check with them. Timing of the Skywarn mobilization will most likely follow a different schedule, so please look for Rob’s specific guidance there.

If we find ourselves under the gun, Rob or I will provide the impact of tropical storm winds (TSW)portion of the storm timeline should that prove necessary. After that has been announced, the HF team should be manned 36 hours prior to the arrival of TSW. Mobilization of our command post at the Bridgewater and Cape Cod EOC’s will be ordered 24 hours in advance of TSW, and the backup EOC’s in Ipswich and the SEMARA club at the 12 hour point. Again, local DEC’s may accelerate that schedule at their discretion.

As a final point, remember the storm speed is what can make the storm particularly dangerous for New Englander’s. Please also remember that the accelerating speed of the storm as it approaches us also compresses our time to react.

Please press the “read more” button (–>) to view hurricane readiness suggestions.

73,

/s/ Michael P. Neilsen
Michael P. Neilsen, W1MPN
Eastern Massachusetts
Section Emergency Coordinator
w1mpn@ema.arrl.org
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
978.562.5662 Office
978.389.0558 FAXHello to all:

As some of you know, August has already been one for the tropical season record books with 8 named storms, breaking the old record of 7 in any August. We can certainly also say that our season has been robust, with three major storms so far (Alex, Charley, and Frances) and it’s not even September yet!

Of greater concern is the track of Hurricane Frances during the upcoming week. Without sounding too dramatic, the storm is very powerful and its track is following those of past monsters such as the Great Hurricane of 1938, and Hurricanes Donna and Carol. I want to emphasize that it is still too early to say for sure where this will go, but its track suggests that we should start thinking about what we want to do. So here are my thoughts:

1. Review your supply situation now. Stock up now with water, batteries, and dry/canned goods. There is an excellent opportunity to do that when you go shopping for your holiday BBQ’s! Waiting until later this week could expose you to crowds trying to deal with holiday needs and an impending storm.
2. Thoroughly review your station status now. Please pay particular attention to outdoor items such as antennas and cabling. Test radios, and ensure batteries and backup power systems are ready to go. Remember we recommend alternative systems to portable generation be used first, due to the inherent dangers with generators to you and utility workers.
3. Those of you working with Echolink for weather management or hurricane reporting should pay particular attention to emergency power. Rob reports that the systems’ greatest vulnerability is power outage of individual stations, not Internet outage!
4. Program radios now to work with RACES and SKYWARN frequencies. You should be able to shift to simplex on the output frequency quickly if needed. Take the opportunity to also program in other liaison, resource, and logistic frequencies as directed by your district communication plan.
5. As a final point, remember the storm speed is what can make the storm particularly dangerous for New Englander’s. Please also remember that the accelerating speed of the storm as it approaches us also compresses our time to react.

Timing of the Skywarn mobilization will most likely follow a different schedule, so please look for Rob’s specific guidance there.

I hope that we will not have to deal with this storm, although I fear someone on the east coast will. I look forward to working with you again after our very successful DNC effort. Thank you in advance for your efforts to get prepared. My regards to you and your family. 73.

Hello to all from KD1CY….

…..Hurricane Frances is a Powerful Category-IV Hurricane that is Slamming
the Bahamas with Amateur Radio Reports of Trees down, roof damage and wind
gusts to 90 MPH as the core of the hurricane tracks between the islands…..
……Models remains split on solutions. While it appears the most likely
solution is landfall in East-Central Florida, Models still have not
converged totally and there remains 2 models that forecast the system to
slow just off the coast of Florida and then move toward the Carolinas. The
track continues to need close monitoring as if this occurs the threat to New
England early-mid next week would increase. A track into Florida as expected
greatly reduces the risk….
…..Amateur Radio Operators Should Treat This like a “Planned Exercise” and
prepare their home stations and go-kits in case the track of Frances becomes
more threatening to our region…..

At 8 AM EDT Wednesday September 2nd, Hurricane Frances is pounding the Bahama Islands and is preparing to slam other Bahama islands as a Category IV hurricane. Frances appears to be in an increasing cycle as far as intensity and there will be some further fluctuations in intensity but a period where Frances becomes a Category 5 hurricane cannot be ruled out. Models have started to converge on a solution where Frances should make landfall in East-Central Florida, owever, two reliable models are insistent on a track towards the Carolinas. Therefore, ncertainity on the track does remain because of model divergence and the fact that landfall is expected in roughly 72-96 hours and at that timeframe, track error is roughly 200-300 miles.

Hurricane Watches have been posted for the East-Central Florida coast and its expected that hurricane warnings will be posted later today for portions of the coast. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion there.

It is noted that as Frances approaches Florida, dangerous rip currents and heavy surf will affect the Southern New England coast during the Labor Day weekend. Please use extreme caution if you plan on going on area beaches this weekend. Rip currents and heavy surf can cause signifcant problems for inexperienced swimmers and for children on area beaches.

Any direct impact would not be felt in Southern New England until the early to middle part of next week but please note that if it remained over water, it could have the potential to accelerate and move more northerly could cause the system to approach quicker and that is why monitoring of this system should commence now.

The Hurricane Watch Net is now active and will be active from 8 AM-11 PM through Friday and will be “drawing up” plans to activate through the Labor Day Weekend. The ham station at WX4NHC will also likely be manned during this timeframe. The VoIP (Voice Over IP) WX Net is active as well. There are no direct Echolink/IRLP nodes in the Bahamas so the net is issuing advisory information and there are Hams monitoring the WX_TALK server on Echolink and are also occasionally monitoring on the IRLP reflector 9210. As Frances approaches Florida, the net will be more active and could sustain operations through a 24-hour period. The NWS Taunton SKYWARN program and the Southeast Massachusetts Amateur Radio Association (SEMARA) ARES team will be assisting with net duties during the course of Hurricane Frances’ impact on the US East Coast. Information on these and other activation nets are listed in a set of links below.

Hurricane Watch Net Status and Information: http://www.hwn.org
VoIP WX Net Status and Information: http://www.voipwx.net
SATERN (Salavation Army Emergency Response Team): http://www.satern.org/
National Hurricane Center Web-Site: http://www.wx4nhc.org/

The next coordination message will be issued Friday Morning by 9 AM.

Please press the “read more” button [–>] for more details.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Southeast Massachusetts ARES District Emergency Coordinator
SEMARA ARES Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://users.rcn.com/rmacedoFLUS41 KBOX 021047
HWOBOX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
647 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2004

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-031100-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
647 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT…MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY…SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ALL OF RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE…
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)…
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS SWELLS BUILD. THIS WILL BE
PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA GENERATING AN EASTERLY SWELL COMBINING WITH THE ARRIVING AND
SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTHERLY SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
FRANCES. THE RESULT COULD BE SEVERAL PERIODS OF NOTABLE SURF HERE
THIS WEEKEND.

THEREAFTER…ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER THAT MAY OCCUR AFTER MONDAY WILL
DEPEND UPON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LARGE SCALE POWERFUL HURRICANE
FRANCES. DESPITE THE CURRENT TRACK HEADING FOR A LANDFALL SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND…THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD
BE MONITORED FOR ITS PROGRESS THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. IT STILL HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT ADVERSE WEATHER TO
OUR AREA…BEYOND THIS WEEKENDS EXPECTATION OF INCREASING SURF.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

EVT

For Amateur Radio Operators, now is the time to make sure your home station
and go-kits where applicable are ready for use. Here are some worthwhile
tips from Mike Neilsen-W1MPN, Eastern Massachusetts ARES, on preparations.
These are generic tips that apply to everyone and modified slightly to be
generic.

1.. Review your supply situation now. Stock up now with water, batteries,
and dry/canned goods. There is an excellent opportunity to do that when you
go shopping for your holiday BBQ’s! Waiting until later this week could
expose you to crowds trying to deal with holiday needs and an impending
storm.

2.. Thoroughly review your station status now. Please pay particular
attention to outdoor items such as antennas and cabling. Test radios, and
ensure batteries and backup power systems are ready to go. Remember we
recommend alternative systems to portable generation be used first, due to
the inherent dangers with generators to you and utility workers.

3.. Those of you working with Echolink for weather management or hurricane
reporting should pay particular attention to emergency power. Rob reports
that the systems’ greatest vulnerability is power outage of individual
stations, not Internet outage!

4.. Program radios now to work with RACES and SKYWARN frequencies. You
should be able to shift to simplex on the output frequency quickly if
needed. Take the opportunity to also program in other liaison, resource,
and logistic frequencies as directed by your district/section communication
plan.

5.. As a final point, remember the storm speed is what can make the storm
particularly dangerous for New Englander’s. Please also remember that the
accelerating speed of the storm as it approaches us also compresses our time
to react.

6..Consult local ARES/RACES leadership for instructions if activation is
required.

The Hurricane Watch Net is now active and will be active from 8 AM-11 PM
through Friday and will be “drawing up” plans to activate through the Labor
Day Weekend. The ham station at WX4NHC will also likely be manned during
this timeframe. The VoIP (Voice Over IP) WX Net is active informally. There
are no direct Echolink/IRLP nodes in the Bahamas so the net is not
officially active as of yet but advisory information is being read and there
are Hams monitoring the WX_TALK server on Echolink and are also occasionally
monitoring on the IRLP reflector 9210. As Frances approaches Florida, the
net will most likely be formally active and could sustain operations through
a 24-hour period. Information on these and other activation nets are listed
in a set of links below.

Hurricane Watch Net Status and Information: http://www.hwn.org
VoIP WX Net Status and Information: http://www.voipwx.net
SATERN (Salavation Army Emergency Response Team): http://www.satern.org/
National Hurricane Center Web-Site: http://www.wx4nhc.org/

Below are some main and alternate links to Hurricane Frances advisories as
well as model output for the hurricane. Use extreme caution with any raw
model output data as they are not for planning purposes. The only thing that
should be utilized for planning purposes is the official National Hurricane
Center forecast track.

Advisory information on Frances:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Alternate Advisory sites and Model Information on Hurricane Frances:
Public Advisory: http://kamala.cod.edu/tropic/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html
Marine Advisory: http://kamala.cod.edu/tropic/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html
Technical Discussion: http://kamala.cod.edu/tropic/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html
Probability Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/tropic/latest.wtnt71.KNHC.html
All Frances advisory info from the College of Dupage:
http://kamala.cod.edu/tropic
All Frances advisory info from the Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org/home/atlantic.html
Frances Model Information: http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/06L.html
Frances Advisory and model information: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical