Storm Coordination Message #3

KD1CY writes:

Hello to all…

….Major Snow Storm with a Period of White-Out or Near Blizzard Conditions
for Southern New England….
….SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton Expected to Start Between 11
AM-1 PM Today….
….Winter Storm Warning in effect through 7 AM Tuesday for Interior
Massachusetts and East Coastal Massachusetts from Plymouth North to
Gloucester, Northern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island and Northern
Connecticut….
….Winter Storm Warning in effect through Noon Tuesday for Southern New
Hampshire….
….Winter Storm Warning in effect through 11 PM Monday Night for South
Coastal Massachusetts, South Coastal Rhode Island and Cape Cod and the
Islands….
….Coastal Flood Watch Posted for the Monday Night High Tide and in
particular the Tuesday Midday High Tide….
….Wind Advisory Posted from 4 PM Monday through 4 AM Tuesday for Eastern
Massachusetts including the South Coast and Cape Cod and the Islands and
South Coastal Rhode Island…
….RACES and ARES Groups should heed advice from their leadership on
possible activation due to this storm anytime between now and midday
Tuesday….
A Major Storm which has caused significant disruptions to the Mid-Atlantic
region including the Washington DC and Philadelphia area is taking aim on
Southern New England. There has been some changes since the last forecast,
those changes are as follows:

1.) More mixing of Sleet possible into the Boston-Providence Corridor but
this will not hold snowfall amounts much in this area with 12″ or more of
snow still expected.
2.) South Coastal Rhode Island, South Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod
will see a changeover to rain but not until 10-12″ of snow falls in the
area.
3.) Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket will see 4-8″ of snow before a
changeover to rain.
4.) Higher Amounts of snowfall are now forecasted across Western, Central
and Northeast Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire.

The following is a breakdown of snowfall by geographic area:

Southeast Middlesex County: 15-25″ of snow
Southern New Hamphire: 16-24″ of snow
Eastern Essex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Northern Bristol, Suffolk Counties
Massachusetts including the Boston Area:
12-20″ of snow. Mix to Sleet and Freezing Rain possible before a change back
to Snow.
Eastern Kent and Southeast Providence Counties of Rhode Island:
12-20″ of snow. Mix to Sleet and Freezing Rain possible before a change back
to Snow.
Western and Central Massachusetts from Worcester County West, All of
Northern CT, Northern Providence County RI:
12-20″ of snow from Willimantic, CT to Woonsocket, RI.
15-25″ of snow for Western and Central Massachusetts and the hilly terrain
of Northern CT.
South Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod: 10-12″ before a changeover to
Sleet, Freezing Rain and then Rain.
Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket: 4-8″ before a changeover to sleet and
rain between 3-6 PM.

Snow has already begun along South Coastal Massachusetts and South Coastal
Rhode Island, the snow will gradually make its way through the region
falling at a light-moderare rate before heavier bands of snow up to 2-3″ per
hour begin to take hold over the region. Snow is already falling moderate in
intensity in places like Hartford, CT and across much of the New York City
area and South Coastal CT. 8″ of snow has already fallen in the New York
City Area. The progression will be slowly and steadily northeast into
Northeast Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire. With the strong winds
expected over the area, a period of whiteout or near blizzard conditions are
possible. At this time, the storm intensity is being held just below
Blizzard threshold and this needs to be monitored closely for any possible
upgrade.

Coastal Flood Threat:

The threat of coastal flooding will be most significant on the Midday
Tuesday High Tide Cycle, however, we will need reports of how the high tide
cycle for Monday Night develops as this could be a precursor for
difficulties in the high tide cycle for Midday Tuesday. It is also likely
that there will be minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide tonight
followed by a threat for moderate coastal flooding for midday Tuesday.

Wind Threat:

A Wind Advisory has been posted for portions of Eastern Massachusetts and
South Coastal Rhode Island. This means sustained winds of 31 MPH or greater
with wind gusts of 46-57 MPH possible. These winds coupled with snow could
knock down trees and power lines and cause possible power outages. These
winds could produce a period of near Blizzard conditions over parts of the
area where snow is still falling late this afternoon through Monday Morning.

SKYWARN Activation Status:

SKYWARN Activation will begin with Ops at NWS Taunton between 11 AM-1 PM and
continue through at least 11 PM tonight or Midnight Tuesday. A break in Ops
may occur at Midnight with Ops restarted Tuesday Morning through Midday to
cover heavy snowfall and strong winds in New Hampshire along with coastal
flooding at the time of the Tuesday Midday high tide.

ARES/RACES Activation Status:

Please consult with your ARES or RACES leaders on possible activation in
areas hardest hit by this major nor’easter.

This will be the last email posted on this situation. Pages will be sent
throughout the day to update this significant threat.

The following products are listed below:

1.) Winter Storm Warning Statement.
2.) Wind Advisory Statement.
3.) Coastal Flood Watch Statement
4.) Hazardous WX Outlook
5.) NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion

WWUS41 KBOX 171042
WSWBOX

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
540 AM EST MON FEB 17 2003

MAZ014-171804-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
540 AM EST MON FEB 17 2003

…WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
BOSTONS IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST SUBURBS….

HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL ACCUMULATE 15 TO 25
INCHES BEFORE CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRECIPITATION MAY END AS A BIT OF SNOW TUESDAY.

HEAVY SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS AND SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPER
TRAVEL. SOME SECONDARY ROADS MAY BE IMPASSABLE. THOSE THAT HAVE TO BE
OUT ON THE ROADS WILL NEED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION AND ALLOW PLENTY OF
EXTRA TIME.

THE HEAVY SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN BRIEF
WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
TRAVEL SHOULD BE AVOIDED LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING UNTIL
CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

$$

NHZ011-012-171757-
CHESHIRE NH-HILLSBOROUGH NH-
540 AM EST MON FEB 17 2003

…WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR CHESHIRE AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE…

SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON…THEN CONTINUE HEAVY TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY. SIXTEEN TO 24 INCHES IS FORECAST.

HEAVY SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS AND SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPER
TRAVEL. SOME SECONDARY ROADS MAY BE IMPASSABLE TONIGHT. THOSE THAT
HAVE TO BE OUT ON THE ROADS WILL NEED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION AND
ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME.

THE HEAVY SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN BRIEF
WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION….ESPECIALLY EARLY TONIGHT.
TRAVEL SHOULD BE AVOIDED LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE.

$$

MAZ007-013-015>019-RIZ002>004-171804-
EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-
SUFFOLK MA-WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
540 AM EST MON FEB 17 2003

…WINTER STORM WARNING LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR OF COASTAL EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
INTO CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND…

THIS WARNING INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE.

SNOW…HEAVY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL ACCUMULATE A
FOOT OR MORE…BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THE
NIGHT. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY END AS A BIT OF SNOW TOMORROW.

HEAVY SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS AND SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPER
TRAVEL. SOME SECONDARY ROADS MAY BE IMPASSABLE THIS EVENING. THOSE
THAT HAVE TO BE OUT ON THE ROADS WILL NEED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME. THE HEAVY SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH
BLOWING SNOW MAY RESULT IN BRIEF WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. TRAVEL SHOULD BE AVOIDED UNTIL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE.

$$

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>006-008>012-RIZ001-171759-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
HARTFORD CT-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-TOLLAND CT-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN MIDDLESEX MA-WINDHAM CT-
540 AM EST MON FEB 17 2003

…WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT…NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AS WELL AS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF MASSACHUSETTS…

THIS WARNING INCLUDES HARTFORD…SPRINGFIELD…WORCESTER…LOWELL
AND THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF PROVIDENCE.

SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CONNECTICUT AND RHODE
ISLAND BETWEEN 7 AM AND 9 AM AND THEN REACH THE MASS TURNPIKE REGION
INCLUDING WORCESTER AND SPRINGFIELD AROUND 9 OR 10 AM AND THEN THE
ROUTE 2 REGION OF NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS BETWEEN 10 AM AND NOON.

SNOW WILL FALL HEAVILY ABOUT 2 OR 3 HOURS AFTER IT BEGINS WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 OR 2 INCHES AN HOUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL DIMINISH LATE AT TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING…
POSSIBLY AS MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW.

TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 12 AND 20 INCHES FROM
WILLIMANTIC TO WOONSOCKET AND BASICALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 25 INCHES
ELSEWHERE. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL TEND TO BE IN THE HILLY
TERRAIN…ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 84…THE HILLS OF NORTHWEST
RHODE ISLAND AS WELL AS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.

HEAVY SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS AND SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPER
TRAVEL. SOME SECONDARY ROADS MAY BE IMPASSABLE THIS EVENING. THOSE
THAT HAVE TO BE OUT ON THE ROADS WILL NEED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME.

THE HEAVY SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN BRIEF
WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. TRAVEL SHOULD BE AVOIDED
UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

$$

MAZ020>022-RIZ005>007-171805-
BARNSTABLE MA-BRISTOL RI-NEWPORT RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-WASHINGTON RI-
540 AM EST MON FEB 17 2003

…WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTH COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING CAPE COD…

SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE THIS MORNING OR MORE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO SLEET AND THEN RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. NEVERTHELESS…HEAVY SNOW AND
INCREASING WIND WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT THIS AFTERNOON.

AT LEAST HALF A FOOT OF SNOW IS FORECAST IN A SHORT TIME TODAY WITH
10 OR 12 INCHES POSSIBLE BY NIGHTFALL.

TONIGHT…THE FREEZING RAIN MAY CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE RISING.

HEAVY SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS AND SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPER
TRAVEL. THOSE THAT HAVE TO BE OUT ON THE ROADS WILL NEED TO USE
EXTREME CAUTION AND ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME.

INCREASING WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW…ALONG WITH
LOW VISIBILITIES. YOU MAY WANT TO CONSIDER POSTPONING TRAVEL UNTIL
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. IF YOU MUST BE OUT ON THE ROADS…ALLOW
PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

$$

MAZ023-024-171805-
DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
540 AM EST MON FEB 17 2003

…WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY FOR NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD…

SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY ACCUMULATING A QUICK 4 TO 8 INCHES
BEFORE CHANGING TO SLEET AND THEN RAIN BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM.

THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING HEAVY AT TIMES AND THERE
MAY BE A THUNDERSTORM LATE AT NIGHT.

THOSE THAT HAVE TO BE OUT ON THE ROADS TODAY WILL NEED TO USE
EXTREME CAUTION AND ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME.

IF YOU MUST BE OUT ON THE ROADS…ALLOW PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR
DESTINATION.

$$
DRAG

WWUS71 KBOX 170925
NPWBOX

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
418 AM EST MON FEB 17 2003

MAZ007-015-016-019>024-RIZ005>007-171718-
BARNSTABLE MA-BRISTOL RI-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-
EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SUFFOLK MA-WASHINGTON RI-
425 AM EST MON FEB 17 2003

…WIND ADVISORY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING…

A POWERFUL WINTER STORM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS TO
COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. SUSTAINED NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS ON
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION…THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET TO DRASTICALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE
HALF MILE AT TIMES. CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING SNOW IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY
ON THE MAINLAND.

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 31
TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA PRECAUTIONS.
MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS
SUBSIDE.

$$

DRV

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH…CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
520 AM EST MON FEB 17 2003

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS
THIS INCLUDES NEWBURYPORT, GLOUCESTER HARBOR, MARBLEHEAD, BOSTON HARBOR,
SCITUATE, PLYMOUTH, SANDWICH, PROVINCETOWN, CHATHAM OUTER HARBOR, NANTUCKET
HARBOR.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AT DAYBREAK WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST TO A POSITION JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET TUESDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION, A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WILL
COMBINE WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND WILL COINCIDE WITH SPRING HIGH TIDE CYCLE, TO
PILE UP OCEAN WATERS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. TIDES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN ABOUT 1.5 TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDE WILL COMBINE WITH 15 TO 20
FOOT WAVES CRASHING ONSHORE, YIELDING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING.

WHILE SIGNIFICANT SPLASH OVER OF OCEAN WAVES ONTO COASTAL ROADS IS LIKELY ON
THE LATE NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE OVERNIGHT, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ON THE TUESDAY NOON TIDE CYCLE.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FLOODING. ANYONE
WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST INCLUDED IN THIS WATCH MUST MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS
BE ISSUED.

STORM TIDE FORECASTS FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE IN FEET MEAN
LOWER LOW WATER. TIME OF HIGH TIDE HAS BEEN ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST
HOUR.

SITE FLOOD TIME OF FORECAST
STAGE HIGH TIDE STORM TIDE

EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS
NEWBURYPORT 10.5 12 PM TUE 11.4
GLOUCESTER HARBOR 11.5 12 PM TUE 11.4
MARBLEHEAD 12.8 12 PM TUE 12.6
BOSTON HARBOR 13.6 12 PM TUE 13.0
SCITUATE 12.5 12 PM TUE 12.5
PLYMOUTH 14.3 1230 PM TUE 13.8
SANDWICH 12.0 1230 PM TUE 12.5
PROVINCETOWN 12.0 1230 PM TUE 12.5
CHATHAM OUTER HARBOR 9.0 1230 PM TUE 9.5
NANTUCKET HARBOR 6.0 1 PM TUE 5.5

FLUS41 KBOX 171242
HWOBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-NHZ011-012-RIZ001>007-181215-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
738 AM EST MON FEB 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE…
MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY…NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND
RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE…TODAY
THE BLOCKBUSTER SNOW STORM THAT HAS BROUGHT A PART OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THEIR SECOND WORST SNOWSTORM ON RECORD HAS MOVED
INTO THE REGION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOUTH OF THE MASS TURNPIKE!

STATEMENTS ARE POSTED FOR 12 TO 26 INCH SNOWFALL OVER MOST OF THE
AREA WITH RAIN AND SLEET TRIMMING AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES OR LESS ON
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

A WIND ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. IF
WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH COINCIDE WITH VISIBILITY “LESS” THAN 1/4 MILE
AT OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT OBSERVATION SITES…FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS LATE
TODAY THEN THIS WOULD BECOME A BLIZZARD.

A FEW POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WIND ADVISORY REGION.

THIS STORM WHILE HUGE…IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST SHORT
OF BLIZZARD SEVERITY. NEVERTHELESS…SNOWFALL RATES OF 2
INCHES/HOUR LATE TODAY WILL CAUSE EXTREMELY POOR CONDITIONS FOR AIR
AND GROUND TRANSPORTATION WITH MAJOR DELAYS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WORST SNOW AND WIND FROM THIS STORM SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 3 PM
AND MIDNIGHT!

THERE UNDOUBTEDLY WILL BE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS IN SNOW AMOUNTS BASED ON
REALITY LATER TODAY AND THE TIMING ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH A PROBABLE
CHANGE TO SLEET OR RAIN FROM BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE SOUTHEASTWARD.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS POSTED AND THE STATEMENT OFFERS THE DETAILS
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS DRIVEN BY A PERIOD OF
60 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL CAUSE AT LEAST MINOR SPLASHOVER AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW…PARTICULARLY OUTER CAPE COD AS
WELL AS PLYMOUTH TO NEWBURYPORT! IF MODERATE FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WOULD BE ISSUED.

ALTHOUGH A THUNDERSTORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED LIGHTNING STRIKE RISK ARE
FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS
VINEYARD…LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED FROM
THE THUNDERSTORM ITSELF.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…

THIS STORM WINDS DOWN QUICKLY BY NOON TUESDAY.

THE NEXT STORM THREAT IS NEXT WEEKEND AND IF ITS A WARM STORM…
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM ISSUES COULD DEVELOP. THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF
THAT STORM STILL IS OPEN FOR A SOMEWHAT COLDER SCENARIO AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT…

AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS AND OTHER SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR
TODAYS SITUATION AND BE PREPARED TO RELAY SNOWFALL REPORTS OF 1″/HR
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AS WELL AS AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6
INCHES…DAMAGING WIND OR COASTAL FLOODING.
$$

FOR WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING
LINK (ALL LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/BOX/WARNINGCRITERIA.SHTML .

DRAG

FXUS61 KBOX 171204 AAA
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
659 AM EST MON FEB 17 2003

…”NEAR” BLIZZARD FOR PARTS OF ORH BOS AREA IN THE 22Z-06Z TIME
FRAME OF WHAT WE BLV OVERALL A MANAGEABLE BUT NASTY BLOCKBUSTER IN
ITS WORST TIME OF IMPACT WHICH IS LATER THIS AFTN AND EARLY
TONIGHT…

YOU’RE AWARE OF 2ND WORST STORM ON RER BWI W 23″
15+ PHL…8+ NYC AS OF 6 AM. BDL MDT SNOW AT 7AM!

MARINE: STRAIGHT GALE WITH ISO G 50 KT OUTER WATERS.

451 AM FCST DEFICIENCIES AS WE BLV THEM TO BE TRUE ATTM.
SE MA AND RI MAY NEED A BOOST IN SNW ACCUM BY 4″.
FOR THIS RECOMMEND CK E LI PNSOKX AMTS AND MOVE FROM THERE.

PLAYED CONSERVATIVE IN ORH COUNTY ON NO WIND ADVY.

FCST FOR THU-SAT IS PROBABLY IN SIG ERROR BUT UNCLEAR ON
NEXT STM DEVELOPMENTS. UK/GFS IMPRESSIVE BUT BE CAREFUL.
THIS STILL HAS AN ICE STM OPTION FOR INTERIOR SNE. SO WHILE
IT LOOKS VERY WARM ON GFS OP RUNS? IF THE GFS IS CORRECT
WE/VE GOT INITIAL ABSORBTION THEN SNOWMELT ISSUES. WE’LL
ADDRESS THIS ON TUE AFTN AFTER THIS BLOCKBUSTER IS NEARLY
COMPLETE.

MOC: ETA THRU 60 HRS. GFS WAFFLES BUT STILL IMPRESSIVE. ETA HAS CLEAR
CSI SIGNAL. ETA DOES WELL ON THESE. ONLY CONCERN NO CLOSED 5H
THO 5H IS DEEPENING.

WORST CONDS 21Z-06Z WHEN SFALL RATES TO 3″/HR POSSIBLE CERTAINLY
1-2″/HR. THIS BASED ON ETA THRU 06Z RUN AND LOCAL OFFICE ETA.

CFA CONTS: PRIMARY THREAT TUE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE WHEN SEAS WILL B 15-
20 FT DESPITE DEPARTING STM FORCE WIND GRAD AND TURN TO
NLY SFC WIND. SURGE WILL B ARD 1.5 TO MAYBE 2FT AT WORST.
MINOR TO POSSIBLY MDT CF UNLESS SLOWER AND LARGER SFC
PPP GRADIENT FUTURE RUNS. SEAS SHUD BE 13-15 FT AT HIGH
TIDE TNGT W MINOR SPLASOVER BUT A BIGGER PBLM TUE WITH
COMBINED 1.2 FT HIGHER ASTRO TIDE PLUS 1.5 SURGE PUTS
BOS AT PREDICTED 12.9. SEAS ON TOP OF THAT…MAYBE NOT
QUITE AS BAD AS EARLIER STMS THIS WINTER BUT A WATCH
IS WARRANTED.

WIND ADVY S COAST FOR SUSTAINED 27KT W GUST 40 KTS…LO PROB ISO G50.
WIND ADVY MQE BOS AND PYM FOR PRD SUSTAINED 27 ISO G45KT.

BLIZZARD: WE WONT SCALE UP YET IF AT ALL. NEED TO SEE M1/4 COMBINED
WITH 30 KT FOR 3 CONSEC HRS.

SWRATIOS: 10 OR 12 TO 1 I 95 SEWD.
15 TO 1 ELSEWHERE ESP W OF BL THERMAL GRAD WHICH BOX ETA
10 HAS VICINITY I95. THIS WILL ENHANCE SFALL NE MA INSIDE
I95…WHERE BEST CHC OF ISO 28-30 SOMEWHERE BTWN ORH-BVY-
LWM-AFN.

S AMTS: TIMING OF SLEET/R/ZR MIX IS CRITICAL TO AMTS. W SFALL RATES
OF 2 OR POSSIBLY 3″/HR THIS AFTN THIS FCST CUD BE LOW END
ESP PVC AREA TO BOS.

“RELATIVELY” MINOR BACKLASH TUESDAY MIDDAY FM AFN TO ORH
NEWD..

HYDRANTS WILL NEED CLEARING FOR THIS STORM. BE PREPARED TO FIVE
ASSISTANCE TO NEARBY FAMILY..FRINDS..NEIGHTBORS.

MORE STORMS IN THE PACKAGE NEXT 2 WEEKS AND STILL LOOKING AT 2/25-26
AS INTERESTING.

CLI: BLV THIS COLD PKG JUST COMPLETED WAS IN SOME PLACES COLDER THAN
THAT OF MID AND LATE JAN….ESP NE MASS AND S NH. NOTING BOS
DEPARTURE FROM CLIMO -24 ON 2/16.

.BOX…
CT…WSW THRU 12Z TUE.
MA…WSW 2>18 THRU 12Z TUE.
WSW 19>21 THRU 04Z TUE BUT S TO ICE OR RAIN ERLY TNGT.
WSW 22>23 TDY ONLY.
WIND ADVY MA 7 15 16 19 23Z TDY THRU 09Z TUE.
WIND ADVY MA 20>24 21Z TDY THRU 09Z TUE.
CFA CONTS MA 7 15 16 19 22>24 FOR TNGT AND TUE HI TIDE.
RI…WSW RI 1>4 THRU 12Z TUE
WSW 5>7 THRU 04Z TUE.
WIND ADVY RI 5>7 21Z TDY THRU 09Z TUE.
NH…WSW 11 12 17Z MON – 17Z TUE

MARINE…GALE ALL WATERS MERR RVR-MTK.

$$
DRAG

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
SEMCARES Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://users.rcn.com/rmacedo

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